Bangladesh Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia made her first ever visit to India in her current term of office from March 20, 2006 to March 22, 2006. Her 48-member official entourage included Finance Minister M Saifur Rahman, Foreign Minister Morshed Khan, Foreign Affairs Adviser Reaz Rahman, and Foreign Secretary Hemayetuddin, among others. A 48-member business delegation from Bangladesh also came along to New Delhi with the Prime Minister. Though a special envoy of Indian Prime Minister had extended an invitation to Begum Zia to visit India as early as 2001 soon after she was elected, the Bangladesh Prime Minister decided to visit India only now. When most of the heads of state of all the major powers of the world have been making a beeline to India, it might appear strange that the Bangladesh Prime Minister had taken so long to visit India.
Her India visit comes after she visited Japan, China and Pakistan in that order. This in itself is a symptom of the benign neglect India has suffered in the foreign affairs priorities of Bangladesh, though India occupies a centre stage in the political horizon of Bangladesh parties. As the visit comes at the fag end of her tenure as Prime Minister, it would be too optimistic to expect either initiation or implementation of any major initiatives to create a positive change in the laid back state of Bangldesh ? India relations.
Begum Khaleda's attitude towards India is also symptomatic of her approach to India's immediate concerns in this region, particularly in respect of eviction of Bangladesh based Indian insurgent groups, permitting transit route for Indian goods, and mutual cooperation on energy security. She had been 'wishing away' these India-related issues, showing a great reluctance to change the existing scheme of things. The reason for this attitude is not far to seek. Begum Khaleda's coalition had won the election with a strong play of 'Indian Hegemony' as the trump suite. The Indian hegemony suite is an incarnation of the 'Hindu domination' suite of East Bengal politics from pre-partition days. General Ziaur Rahman who seized power in 1974 was gave it a lease of life after independence. He founded the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and built his political fortune by rehabilitating fundamentalist Islamic elements of Jamaat-e-Islami and others like Islami Oikye Jate (IOJ) who had collaborated with the Pakistani military rulers during the freedom struggle. Begum Khaleda who also dons the leadership mantle of the BNP has continued to build on this alliance with the Islamic rightwing to form a strong centre-right coalition. BNP considers it a political necessity to challenge the formidable centre-left coalition of Awami League led alliance of parties, which participated actively in the freedom struggle.
Building a constructive relationship with India thus became a casualty in this political confrontation between the two major political entities. Historically India, and in particular the Congress party, had built a close relationship with the late President Mujibur Rahman and the Awami League since 1971. So logically anti-Indian attitude had been touted as the cornerstone of BNP's anti-Awami League coalition. But the 'Indian bugbear' issue may have lost some shine now as trade and industry in Bangladesh would like to get a share of the Indian growth story. However, Begum Khaleda led coalition is likely to play the India card again in the forthcoming elections to the parliament. But instead of India's hegemony, issues like India's unfavourable trade balance with Bangladesh, and her refusal to grant full duty exemption for imported Bangladesh goods and the woes of Bangladesh the lower riparian due to linking of Indian river waters are likely to form the pillory for flogging India as the election campaign warms up.
Whether BNP and its allies like it or not, time has come for Bangladesh to recognize the changes in the South Asian power and political environments. During Begum Khaleda's current tenure of office the South Asian environment has changed as a result of evolution of a new global power equation and trade dispensations following the WTO. The changes in geo-political realities of the post-cold war era and global economic fortunes have helped India grow in both as an economic power as well as a strategic partner of the U.S. Added to this, international concern over the growing spread of Islamic terrorism after 9/11 has made life a little less cosy for practitioners of pro-Taliban politics in Bangladesh. In her government fundamentalist fellow travelers like Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) as coalition partners had been wielding a disproportionately strong influence in government's decision-making process. Their influence pervaded so much that Begum Khaleda government chose to deny and ignore the existence and activities of Islamist terrorist groups, ideologically very close to the JeI and the IOJ, despite widespread public demand against their vigilantism and killings for nearly two years. All along the years, the activities of these Islamist terrorists had been a matter of concern for the Government of India because of their links with Jihadi elements of Pakistan and the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI). Bangladesh government chose to scoff at India's protests and calls for action against these terrorist elements.
The U.S. has been trying to build close relations with Bangladesh over the years for two reasons. Bangladesh is one of the few genuinely democratic countries in the Muslim world; it had been generally favourable to play its part as an ally to the U.S. despite its internal preoccupations with fundamentalism. Secondly, Bangladesh's geographical location in the underbelly of India, close to the frontiers of China and Myanmar makes it a useful strategic cockpit for exercising the U.S. influence in this part of Asia. Additionally, Bangladesh though poor, is rich in human resources. The increased acts of terrorism in the form of bomb blasts and killings targeted at opposition leaders and cadres during 2004-2005 had caused great concern to the U.S. also. It had been pressurising Bangladesh government to take firm action to curb the activities of Islamist terrorists in the country.
In August 2005 the rulers in Bangladesh got a rude jolt when the Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), the fundamentalist terror outfit, stole the thunder by setting off a series of 500 bomb blasts in 63 of the 64 districts of Bangladesh. This time around their nationwide targets were government offices and public institutions like courts instead of Awami League leaders or Leftists. And the government could not wish away their existence any more, as their activities threatened the credibility and existence of the government. Thus it became essential for Begum Khaleda to re-establish the sagging credentials of her government's competency internally and as a responsible power in the fight against terrorism, internationally. The BNP led government came down hard on the JMB and other motley collection of terrorist and militant outfits. It is significant that the JMB leaders whose existence was denied earlier by the government for two years, were rounded in a matter of months.
Reasons for the visit
Any analysis of Begum Khaleda's visit to India has to be viewed in this background. The question why Begum Khaleda chose to visit India towards the fag end of her term raises a number of issues related to the answer.
* Was it to deal with all the pending India-related issues? It does not appear to be so. There are a whole lot of issues waiting to be resolved between the two countries. Some of them are as old as Bangladesh as a nation and some were inherited from the previous incarnation as East Pakistan. They would require a great deal of spadework and top level meetings. That would also have called for a much longer trip, with greater fanfare.
* Was it a window dressing on the eve of parliamentary elections so that she is not accused of ignoring the demands of economic reality of rectifying Bangladesh's unfavourable trade balance with India? This could be one of the reasons for the visit, because Begum Khaleda in her speech spoke of her "courageous decision" to visit India, when elections were near in the country. But it may not be mere window dressing; there is probably a genuine interest in improving the trade balance. Her effort could come as 'achievement' to be counted in the election campaign. The presence of a large delegation of businessmen also underlines the growing interest in improving the trade balance between the two countries.
* Was it to satisfy the U.S. and India that her government was serious about the crackdown upon Islamist terrorism? Begum Khaleda had over the years built a poor reputation in handling terrorism issues within the country. Internationally this was affecting Bangladesh's image. There was an urgent need to refurbish this image if Bangladesh was to become a favourable investment destination. It is significant that the crackdown on Islamic terrorist elements and the arrest of JMB leader Saiful Islam better known as Banglabhai, was carried out prior to her New Delhi visit, perhaps as an icing to the cake of her suddenly found enthusiasm to fight the terrorism.
* Or was it an unavoidable routine that she had to visit India at least once during her tenure as India is emerging as a major economic power? Begum Khaleda had built up a cosy relationship with China and Pakistan, two countries, which had formed an axis against the emergence of an independent Bangladesh. But there is a limit to which China and Pakistan could help out Bangladesh's trade prospects. She is aware that with the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) coming into force as the years go by India as the largest South Asian nation will have an increasing economic clout. In the long run Bangladesh and India have to build a win-win trade relationship whatever their rulers of the two countries may feel about each other. The destinies of the two nations, which are interlinked geographically and culturally, will have to inevitably become interwoven economically. These are compulsions that compel the two countries to at least maintain if not build political linkages between them. This is more so for Bangladesh.
Gains of the visit
The diplomatic gloss that coated the media coverage of Begum Khaleda cannot obscure the fact that the visit achieved little. This is evident from the joint press release issued in Delhi at the end of the visit (see annexure attached). There were few goodies that came out of the visit. Nothing tangible was done about the vexing issues that hold the India-Bangladesh relations in a gridlock. Two agreements were signed during the visit. These were: the Revised Trade Agreement and the Agreement for Mutual Cooperation for Preventing Illicit Trafficking in Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances and Related Matters. The Revised Trade Agreement is a modified version of the original signed in 1980, which had expired in 2001. This used to be renewed for short periods of few months from then onwards. The revised version is expected to provide a framework for expansion of bilateral trade. The other agreement to combat drug trafficking is the basic minimum expected between two neighbouring countries, which are bound by a large land border adjacent to the Golden Triangle of narcotic production. A third agreement on investment protection and avoidance of double taxation did not come through because there were some 'last minute' hitches.
A report in the Dhaka daily New Age aptly summed up the visit: "Signing of a revised 26-year old trade treaty has been the net outcome of the Prime Minister's India visit," in which trade was one of the key agendas. The report said that even on the bilateral trade issues apparently both the official and trade delegations of Bangladesh were ill prepared. "First of all the absence of the Commerce Minister Altaf Hossain Chouwdhry, was unusual in such a visit, where his Indian counterpart, Kamal Nath, stole the show and played a pivotal role in formal and informal talks. In the meeting with India's business and industry leaders, Kamal Nath well articulated India's position and interests in presence of the Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, who just reasserted Bangladesh's concern with regard to trade gap." While the Indian Commerce Minister was specific, there was no specific and concise presentation from Bangladesh side relevant to its needs and demands, the newspaper added.
Bangladesh Foreign Minister M Morshed Khan in his press briefing at Dhaka prior to the visit had said security was likely to be the dominant issue in the discussion between the two leaders. The irony was that even as Begum Khaleda was visiting India, there was an exchange of fire between the Border Security Forces and Bangladesh Rifles around the North Dinajpur area, close to Begum Khaleda's hometown. Though security issues were discussed both sides appear to have had their say on expected lines without any progress. The Bangladesh Finance Minister Saifur Rahman spelt out the outcome thus: "For so long you have an erroneous impression of insurgent camps in Bangladesh, about Bangladeshis entering India -- if you persist with this misleading erroneous impression, it will be very difficult to have harmonious relationship." In other words, India's concern on the issues of Indian insurgents being given shelter in Bangaldesh or on illegal Bangladeshi migration is going to hang fire as before.
The river waters issue including the sharing of water of common rivers including Teesta, and Bangladesh's concern over India's Tipaimukh Barrage was also discussed. But it was surprising that the Bangladesh Prime Minister did not include the Bangladesh Water Resources Minister in her delegation for the visit. Evidently Begum Khaleda had no great expectation of any positive out come from the talks on this issue.
Changes in India's foreign policy horizon
India's foreign policy preoccupations during the last decade have shifted to larger horizons. Its priority has moved from mere physical security concerns of cold war era to improving its piece of the global economic cake and ensuring her energy security. These efforts over the last decade appear to have paid dividends. India's economic growth had been short of being spectacular. Even countries like China and the Pakistan have changed their approach to India in tune with times, particularly as the U.S. and India have moved to build closer economic, trade and strategic partnerships. Considering India's growing trade with the ASEAN region and China it will be in India's interest to build better relations with Bangladesh. But India's current preoccupations may give short shrift to such endeavour if Bangladesh does not show a visible shift in its mindset with regard to India. India may have to walk an extra mile to bring Bangladesh to a win-win mindset.
Conclusion
It is an unfortunate fact that Begum Khaleda's government enjoys very low credibility in India. Bangladesh's utter disregard for Indian security concerns against insurgency and terrorism husbanded in Bangladesh had not helped the atmosphere. Innuendoes and allegations of India's covert and overt role in adding to Bangladesh cup of woes articulated by the BNP government during the last four years had further vitiated the air.
Even on other issues, Bangladesh has repeatedly shown that it was not prepared to move away from her stated positions of the past. Even purely trade issues like the routing of India-Myanmar gas pipeline through Bangladesh or the passage of Asian Highway project to build a road link between India and the ASEAN region through Bangladesh were stone walled on political considerations. Bangladesh had repeatedly tied multi-lateral issues with bilateral knots much to the loss of its own trading advantage and opportunities. Bangladesh has to look at India-Bangladesh relations in the current context, subsuming past prejudices. This would require tremendous vision in building a relationship where Bangladesh gets a major share of India's growth pie. So far Bangladesh Prime Minister has not given any inkling of such an out of the box approach to India.
Of late, India has shown a willingness to shed its patronizing attitude of the past and come to grips with even the 'traditional' issues affecting its relations with Bangladesh. An important aspect in this is the need to help Bangladesh balance its trade with India. This would mean some sacrifice on India's part as Finance Minister P Chidambaram has indicated. Indian Commerce Minister Kamal Nath has shown willingness to accord preferential treatment to imports from Bangladesh within the SAFTA as well as under a special bilateral FTA. Undoubtedly, as India's experience with Sri Lanka and Thailand has shown, implementing FTA will be a slow but sure process of formalising trade concessions. Though the fortunes of election may result in a different leadership in Bangladesh, India should not allow its interest in improving the trade relationship with Bangladesh to die down.
Begum Khaleda's New Delhi visit though not well timed and belated, appears to have had some positive effect in clearing some of the air of suspicion clouding the relationship between the two countries. Both the prime ministers have agreed to improve the levels of communication between the two countries and reactivate the joint working groups. Despite the mental blocks on both sides, there is a glimmer of hope. News that found the only the sidelines during the visit was the meeting between Begum Khaleda and the Mizoram Chief Minister Zoramthanga. Mizoram has Bangladesh on its western land border. The revised bilateral trade agreement signed during the visit provides for the two countries to use respective territories for transporting goods. This is good news for Mizoram, which hopes to improve its bamboo trade with the rest of the country and Bangladesh. Bangladesh is said to be finalising a corridor for such transit.
The Bangladesh Foreign Minister after his visit to India has said Indians do not appear to favour any particular political party in Bangladesh. This could be the indication of an emerging change in the mindset of the ruling circles in Bangladesh that had always held India as a pro-Awami League player. These are positive signs that augur well for better Bangladesh-India relations.
In the past, there had been purple patches in the otherwise arid field of India-Bangladesh relations. India and Bangladesh signed the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty in December 1996 in one such spell. There is no reason why this cannot be repeated in other contentious areas. Of course, some issues will be time consuming and can cause a lot of heartburn and discontent on both sides. Take the example of like the exchange of enclaves between the two countries. There are 111 Indian enclaves in Bangladesh and 51 Bangladesh enclaves in India. A beginning was made in tackling this problem with the signing of Land Boundary Agreement in 1974. Though some progress over the years has been made in working out a methodology for the exchange, the Joint Boundary Working Group (JBWG) has not met to carryout further action. This intransigence was mainly due to lack of trust between the two countries.
Any major breakthrough in the relationship between the two countries can come only when the confidence level goes up. At present, existing forums that build confidence and communication have been allowed to go into suspended animation. These include the Joint Economic Commission, the Joint Rivers Commission, the Joint Working Group on Trade and the Joint Boundary Working Groups (JBWG). They have ceased to be 'joint' or 'working' as they do not meet regularly. It is clear that mere talk of goodwill and common history will remain a hyperbole, unless a great deal of planned efforts to improve relations is made on both sides. Both the prime ministers are aware of this, as they have now agreed to improve these channels of communication.
Many in India tend to view the India-Bangladesh relationship within the single dimension of Hindu-Muslim rhetoric. But there are many more dimensions to it. There is a continuum of live cultural and linguistic tradition cutting across the border. Indians should not forget that there is tremendous goodwill for India in Bangladesh. Bangladeshis do remember India's un-stinted support and sacrifices of its armed forces for their independence, which culminated in the creation of Bangladesh in 1971. It would be foolish if India and Bangladesh allow this latent goodwill on both sides to flounder on prejudices or petty politics.
It is good that both the Prime Ministers have met and talked. But talking is not enough; both have to walk the talk. In the coming parliamentary elections Begum Khaleda has a golden opportunity to affirm her goodwill to India by shedding the traditional India bashing in the run up to the election. Will she have the courage to do so? Can she show the strength of her leadership required to persuade BNP and her coalition partners to shed their traditional Indophobic rhetoric during the elections? Only time can tell. In an era where time is an important and irreplaceable growth resource, both India and Bangladesh would be the losers if she or her successor does not take their ideas on building a better relationship with India out of the closet of suspicion.
(Col R Hariharan (retd) is an intelligence analyst who had taken part in the Bangladesh war in 1971. During his service he was an MI specialist on Bangladesh. E-mail: colhari@yahoo.com)
Annexure
Joint Press Release, State Visit of Begum Khaleda Zia,
Prime Minister of Bangladesh
H.E. Begum Khaleda Zia, Prime Minister of the People's Republic of Bangladesh paid a state visit to India from 20-22 March 2006 at the invitation of the Indian Prime Minister, H.E. Dr. Manmohan Singh.
2. During the visit, the Bangladesh Prime Minister held comprehensive discussions with the Indian Prime Minister H.E. Dr. Manmohan Singh on the entire gamut of bilateral relations. They also discussed regional and international issues of mutual interest. The discussions between the two leaders were underpinned by the common desire to strengthen and consolidate the friendly ties that already exist between the two countries based as they are on shared history and culture and wide-ranging people-to-people relations.
3. The Bangladesh Prime Minister called on the Indian President H.E. Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, the Vice-President H.E. Shri Bhairon Singh Shekhawat and the Chairperson, United Progressive Alliance, Smt. Sonia Gandhi. The Hon'ble Minister of Commerce and Industry Shri Kamal Nath, the Hon'ble Leader of the Opposition Shri L.K. Advani, and the Hon'ble Chief Minister of Mizoram, Shri Zoramthanga, also called on the Bangladesh Prime Minister.
4. Two Agreements were signed during the visit of the Bangladesh Prime Minister. These were: the Revised Trade Agreement and the Agreement for Mutual Cooperation for Preventing Illicit Trafficking in Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances and Related Matters. While the revised trade agreement is expected to provide a framework for expansion of bilateral trade, the other agreement signals the joint determination of the two Governments to combat drug trafficking.
5. Both leaders agreed on the need to maintain high-level political dialogue between the two countries. It was recalled that the Indian Prime Minister had met the Bangladesh Prime Minister in Dhaka in November last year during the 13th SAARC Summit. The current visit of the Bangladesh Prime Minister has provided both countries the opportunity to continue and sustain their high-level political dialogue. The visit is also testimony to the highest priority attached by both countries to the promotion of their bilateral relations in all aspects.
6. Discussions between the sides led by the two Prime Ministers were held in a cordial atmosphere and there was a constructive and forward-looking exchange of views. The discussions resulted in greater understanding and appreciation of each other's point of view. It was agreed that meetings of the bilateral institutional mechanisms such as the Joint Economic Commission, the Joint Boundary Working Groups, the Joint Rivers Commission and the Home Secretary-level talks would be held more frequently to ensure movement in a positive direction and their outcome monitored by the political leadership on a continuous basis. Whether it is security, trade or sharing of water, the two leaders reaffirmed their commitment to work closely together to find mutually satisfactory solutions. Both sides agreed that the visit of H.E.Begum Khaleda Zia, the Bangladesh Prime Minister to India had contributed to further consolidation and progress in the already close and friendly relations between the two neighbouring countries.
7. The two leaders also expressed their satisfaction over the successful conclusion of the 13th SAARC Summit in Dhaka in November 2005. They agreed that the positive outcome of the Summit would enable SAARC member countries to achieve specific economic and social objectives. Both leaders emphasized that implementation of SAFTA must be pursued with vigour to advance the SAARC economic agenda.
8. The Bangladesh Prime Minister conveyed her thanks to the Indian Prime Minister as well as the Government and the people of India for the warm hospitality extended to her and members of her delegation during her visit to India. She extended an invitation to the Indian Prime Minister to visit Bangladesh. The invitation was accepted by the Indian Prime Minister with pleasure and precise dates would be worked out through diplomatic channels.
New Delhi
March 22, 2006
Source: www.meaindia.nic.in