Analysis: India's Myanmar strategy
Dated 16/3/2006
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India is pursuing a two-pronged strategy on Myanmar to gain economic benefits and strategic access to Southeast Asia, Indian analysts said Thursday.
"India is following a two-pronged strategy, first to be a friend of Myanmar and gain economic benefits such as oil exploration rights. Secondly, to get a land route to Southeast Asia to expand its trade relations with the region," said senior political analyst Sandeep Dixit of The Hindu newspaper.
Dixit said pursuing greater economic and military security in Southeast Asia are an integral part of India's "Look East" plan to ensure political interests in the region; part of the strategy is to coax Myanmar to move towards multi-party democracy.
India's look east policy is poised to take another significant step after President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam recently became the first Indian head of state to pay an official state visit to military-ruled Myanmar.
During his three-day visit to India's eastern neighbor, Kalam held talks with Myanmar's military strongman, General Than Shwe. His visit to Myanmar was seen as an important political gesture by India, reciprocating an October 2004 visit to India by Shwe that renewed bilateral diplomatic relations.
"The goodwill visit contributed significantly to the further strengthening of (India's) bilateral relations (with Myanmar)," said Navtej Sarna, Indian foreign ministry spokesman.
Relations between India and Myanmar have not always been so cordial.
India became a vocal supporter of Nobel Prize winning democracy activist Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been under house arrest in Yangon since the military junta cracked down on Myanmar's pro-democracy movement in 1988.
Kyi's party won about 80 percent of seats in elections held that year. India came out in support of Kyi as she had studied previously in New Delhi and counted among her friends the late Indian president K.R. Narayanan, who had married a Burmese woman.
With the growing Chinese influence on Myanmar, India began mending fences with its leaders and actively sought better economic and military ties.
"Chinese domination was increasing everyday in Myanmar, while India sat on the sidelines," said Dixit, adding "in 1995 India realized that there should be better relations with Myanmar no matter who is holding power."
President Kalam's visit has underscored this strategy. However, pro-democracy leaders and Kyi supporters have expressed their unhappiness over India fostering closer ties with Myanmar's authoritarian regime, with some demanding the Indian president postpone his visit.
Kalam raised the issues of a return to democracy in Myanmar and Kyi's house arrest during his meeting with Shwe.
"I have discussed Aung San Suu Kyi... Naturally, our people are interested in her well-being," Kalam said at the end of the trip. "The general said he'll take up India's interest... about the well-being of Aung San Suu Kyi with his team and he'll come back to us."
Indian Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran, who accompanied the president, said affirmed that the two leaders also spoke about the "general's seven-point plan to take Myanmar to the path of democracy."
During his talks with Shwe, Kalam offered India's help towards institution and capacity building, including electoral machinery.
Pro-democracy groups in Myanmar have frequently lashed out at what they call New Delhi's hypocritical democracy record for its engagement with the military junta.
Elsewhere, insurgent activity in northeast India has its roots in Myanmar. Analysts say the Indian government sees the unrest as yet another reason -- besides China's significant presence in the country -- to upgrade its links with its neighbor.
"India needs to strengthen its strategic cooperation with Myanmar for two reasons... India can effectively deal with the ongoing insurgency in the northeast and check Chinese strategic advancement towards the Bay of Bengal," said political analyst A.B. Mahapatra.
